VO2 Max: The One Number That Predicts How Long You’ll Live

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Issue #18: November 10, 2025

🫁 The Longevity Metric You’re Probably Ignoring

People in the top 25% of VO₂ Max scores are five times less likely to die than those in the bottom 25%.
Not 20% better. Not twice as good. Five times less likely to die.

Most people track cholesterol, blood sugar, and blood pressure — yet almost no one tracks the one metric that predicts lifespan better than all of them combined.

That metric is called VO₂ Max — your body’s ability to use oxygen efficiently.

⚙️ What It Actually Measures

VO₂ Max is your maximum capacity to use oxygen during exercise — essentially, how well your heart, lungs, and muscles work together to make energy.

Think of it as your engine size.
Two cars can look identical, but one might have a V6 and the other a V12.
The bigger engine doesn’t just go faster — it’s built to go longer.

A high VO₂ Max means your body can deliver oxygen to your cells, create clean energy, and recover fast.
A low one means your system runs on fumes — it simply can’t deliver enough oxygen to keep up.

Here’s the key: VO₂ Max isn’t just about performance — it’s about adaptability.
It measures how well your body handles stress, recovers from effort, and sustains energy over time.
In other words: how young you are on the inside.

🧬 Why It Matters More Than Other Metrics

Of all the biomarkers we measure — cholesterol, blood pressure, blood sugar, body fat — VO₂ Max outperforms every one of them in predicting how long you’ll live.

In a JAMA study, people with elite VO₂ Max scores were up to five times less likely to die from any cause than those at the bottom. Even small gains — just a few points — can add years of healthy life and cut your risk of heart disease, diabetes, and cognitive decline.

VO₂ Max is essentially your metabolic resilience score — a readout of how efficiently your body adapts, recovers, and thrives.

⚠️ What Happens If You Don’t Train It

VO₂ Max naturally drops about 10% per decade after 30 — faster if you sit more than you move.

But that decline isn’t destiny. People who train consistently can maintain — or even improve — their VO₂ Max well into their 50s, 60s, and beyond.

If you ignore it, though, here’s what happens:

• You get tired faster. Stairs feel steeper, recovery slower, afternoons heavier.

• Your metabolism drags. Fat burning and insulin sensitivity drop.

• Your resilience shrinks. Stress — physical or emotional — hits harder.

• You age faster. Low VO₂ Max is tied to higher risks of heart disease, dementia, and early death, even in people with “normal” labs.

Put simply:
You don’t just lose fitness. You lose capacity for life.

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🧪 How To Measure It

If you’ve ever seen someone running on a treadmill with a gas mask on, that’s VO₂ Max testing in a lab. It’s the gold standard — measuring how much oxygen you inhale and how much carbon dioxide you exhale as intensity increases until your oxygen use plateaus.

For most people, though, wearables are enough to start.
Apple Watch, Garmin, and WHOOP all estimate VO₂ Max using your heart-rate and pace data. Track your number for 3–6 months, then get a professional test once to set your true baseline.

Here’s how to read the numbers:

• Excellent: 50–60 + ml/kg/min for men, 45–55 + for women

• Good: Around 45–50 for men, 40–45 for women

• Average: 35–44 for men, 30–39 for women

• Below average: Anything below 35 for men or 30 for women is considered below average

To make that real:
A VO₂ Max around 55 means you can sustain hard effort for long stretches — think running a fast 5K or biking for hours without bonking.
A VO₂ Max near 35 means a single flight of stairs might leave you winded.

🧗‍♂️ How To Improve It

The formula is simple — but not easy.
The heart isn’t just a pump — it’s a trainable organ. You have to train it like a muscle.

1️⃣ Zone 2 Training (Build the Base)

• 60–70% of your max heart rate (you can talk, but not sing)

• 3–4 sessions a week, 45–60 minutes each

• Builds mitochondria — your cells’ energy factories — improving fat burning and endurance

2️⃣ High-Intensity Intervals (Expand the Ceiling)

• 4–6 rounds of 2–4 minutes hard, followed by equal recovery

• 1–2 sessions a week

• Boosts your heart’s stroke volume and oxygen delivery

3️⃣ Strength Training (Support the System)

• 2–3 sessions a week

• Maintains lean muscle — the scaffolding that supports oxygen use

If intervals aren’t accessible due to injury or health concerns, focus on Zone 2.
Steady-state aerobic work alone can still raise VO₂ Max — it just takes longer.

Common mistakes:

• Going too hard in Zone 2 (it should feel easy-ish)

• Doing intervals every day (you’ll burn out your nervous system)

• Not tracking heart rate (you’re guessing instead of training)

Sample week:

• Mon: Zone 2 — 50 min walk, jog, or bike

• Wed: Intervals — 6 × 3 min hard / 3 min easy

• Fri: Zone 2 — 60 min steady pace

• Sat: Strength training

💪 The Longevity Angle

VO₂ Max isn’t just about endurance.
It’s about capacity — your body’s ability to produce and sustain energy across time.

When you train VO₂ Max, you’re teaching your mitochondria, heart, and metabolism to stay efficient under stress. That translates into sharper thinking, steadier energy, and slower biological aging.

Every time you train, you’re not just building fitness — you’re buying future capacity.

⚡️ Your Move

Check your VO₂ Max this month — on your watch or in a lab.
Then train it deliberately for 90 days.

Retest.
See what changed.
The number will move — and so will how you feel.

Until next week. Stay vital.

-Jordan Slotopolsky

📚 Sources

• Kodama S et al., JAMA (2009): Cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality risk

• Barry V W et al., Prog Cardiovasc Dis (2015): Fitness vs fatness on mortality

• Ross R et al., Mayo Clin Proc (2016): Importance of VO₂ Max in clinical practice